IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

  • Cristadoro, Riccardo
  • Venditti, Fabrizio
  • Saporito, Giuseppe

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether in order to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. In both cases our findings point to the conclusion that, once area wide information is properly taken into account, there is little to be gained from considering national idiosyncratic developments. JEL Classification: C25, E37, E52

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0900.

in new window

Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080900
Contact details of provider: Postal:
60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 11285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Filippo Altissimo & Pierpaolo Benigno & Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela, 2005. "Long-Run Determinants of Inflation Differentials in a Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 11473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paul De Grauwe, 2000. "Monetary Policies in the Presence of Asymmetries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 593-612, November.
  5. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
  6. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Altissimo, Filippo & Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Veronese, Giovanni, 2006. "New EuroCOIN: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 5633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. De Grauwe, Paul, 2000. "Monetary Policies In The Presence Of Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2393, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 94-113, February.
  10. Domenico Giannone & Troy Matheson, 2006. "A new core inflation indicator for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  12. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  14. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  15. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
  16. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001. "A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Beck, Günter W. & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the US," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  18. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
  20. André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  21. Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Carstensen Kai & Colavecchio Roberta, 2006. "The EBC Monetary Policy and its Taylor-type Reaction Function," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 51-86.
  24. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
  25. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The Consumer Price Index as a Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo Group Munich.
  27. Vega, Juan Luis & Wynne, Mark A., 2001. "An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0053, European Central Bank.
  28. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: What Role for National Information?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  29. Carstensen, Kai, 2006. "Estimating the ECB policy reaction function," Munich Reprints in Economics 19941, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  30. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  31. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080900. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.