Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy
This paper aims to address the issue of public pension reforms under demographic ageing that is likely to occur in Europe over the next 50 years. Three possible scenarios are analysed in a Blanchard OLG framework. These include: i) a decrease both in public pensions and the lump sum labour income tax, ii) a decrease both in public pensions and the distortionary corporate tax, iii) an increase in the retirement age. The analysis focuses on the effects of these fiscal policies on key economic variables such as consumption, private and public debt, output and wages. Quantitative experiments assess the impact of different fiscal policies in terms of public debt sustainability but most importantly suggest policies that smooth the transition of the economy to the new equilibrium. The main results suggest that the adverse effects of pension reforms on consumption are moderated when they are accompanied by appropriate taxation policies. In particular, when the tax response is rapid most of the adverse movement in consumption is avoided while public and national debt reach lower equilibrium levels. JEL Classification: E6, H3, J1, H55
|Date of creation:||Feb 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2004. "The New Keynesian Model with Imperfect Information and Learning," IDEI Working Papers 273, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008.
"Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 301-319, June.
- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas Steger, 2006. "Multi-Dimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numberical Procedure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1745, CESifo Group Munich.
- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Joseph Koch & Thomas Steger, 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure (Matlab)," QM&RBC Codes 194, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas M. Steger, 2004. "Multi-dimensional transitional dynamics : a simple numerical procedure," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 04/35, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- Karl-Josef Koch & Timo Trimborn & Thomas M. Steger, 2005. "Multi-Dimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 121-05, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
- Timo Trimborn & Karl-Joseph Koch & Thomas Steger, 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure (Mathematica)," QM&RBC Codes 193, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Søren Nielsen, 1994. "Social security and foreign indebtedness in a small open economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 47-63, March.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
- Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June.
- Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
- Mercenier, Jean & Michel, Philippe, 1994. "Discrete-Time Finite Horizon Appromixation of Infinite Horizon Optimization Problems with Steady-State Invariance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 635-56, May.
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984.
"Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons,"
NBER Working Papers
1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006.
"The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 349-370, June.
- Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2004. "The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks," CCSO Working Papers 200403, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2004. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks," Discussion Paper 2004-90, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Jonathan Temple, 2003. "The Long-Run implications of Growth Theories," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 497-510, 07.
- Casey B. Mulligan & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "A Note on the Time-Elimination Method For Solving Recursive Dynamic Economic Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20080863. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.