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Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets

  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele
  • Hahn, Elke
  • Sánchez, Marcelo

This paper examines the degree of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) to prices in 12 emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe. Our results, based on three alternative vector autoregressive models, partly overturn the conventional wisdom that ERPT into both import and consumer prices is always higher in “emerging” than in “developed” countries. For emerging markets with only one digit inflation (most notably the Asian countries), passthrough to import and consumer prices is found to be low and not very dissimilar from the levels of developed economies. The paper also finds robust evidence for a positive relationship between the degree of the ERPT and inflation, in line with Taylor’s hypothesis once two outlier countries (Argentina and Turkey) are excluded from the analysis. Finally, the presence of a positive link between import openness and ERPT, while plausible theoretically, finds only weak empirical support. JEL Classification: C32, E31

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0739.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070739
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  1. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4810, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  6. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  7. Dalia Hakura & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2001. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Does the Inflationary Environment Matter?," IMF Working Papers 01/194, International Monetary Fund.
  8. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & José M. González-Mínguez, 2005. "Exchange-Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 11632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Michael B. Devereux & Philip Lane, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 200111, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "Why Do Consumer Prices React less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  12. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
  15. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  16. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  17. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  18. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. repec:rus:hseeco:122183 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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