What drives business cycles and international trade in emerging market economies?
This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from signrestricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international trade variables are dominated by domestic shocks. External shocks on average explain a fraction of no more than 10% of the variation in the endogenous variables considered. Moreover, real imports fail to display a cross-regional pattern, while technology shocks appear to be the disturbances playing a somewhat more important role in explaining consumer prices developments. Consumer prices and – depending on the disturbance considered – real imports are the variables showing larger impulse responses to unit shocks. JEL Classification: C32, E32, F41
|Date of creation:||Feb 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070730. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.