IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Bayesian inference in cointegrated VAR models: with applications to the demand for euro area M3

  • Warne, Anders

The paper considers a Bayesian approach to the cointegrated VAR model with a uniform prior on the cointegration space. Building on earlier work by Villani (2005b), where the posterior probability of the cointegration rank can be calculated conditional on the lag order, the current paper also makes it possible to compute the joint posterior probability of these two parameters as well as the marginal posterior probabilities under the assumption of a known upper bound for the lag order. When the marginal likelihood identity is used for calculating these probabilities, a point estimator of the cointegration space and the weights is required. Analytical expressions are therefore derived of the mode of the joint posterior of these parameter matrices. The procedure is applied to a money demand system for the euro area and the results are compared to those obtained from a maximum likelihood analysis. JEL Classification: C11, C15, C32, E41

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp692.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0692.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060692
Contact details of provider: Postal:
60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  2. BAUWENS, Luc & LUBRANO , Michel, 1994. "Identification Restrictions and Posterior Densities in Cointegrated Gaussian VAR Systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1994018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Strachan, Rodney W. & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Bayesian analysis of the error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 307-325, December.
  4. Dreze, Jacques H., 1977. "Bayesian regression analysis using poly-t densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 329-354, November.
  5. Samuel Reynard, 2004. "Financial Market Participation and the Apparent Instability of Money Demand," Working Papers 2004-01, Swiss National Bank.
  6. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139, December.
  9. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-43, January.
  10. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
  11. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
  12. Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 1999. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," ESE Discussion Papers 44, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  13. Rodney W. Strachan & Herman K. Dijk, 2003. "Bayesian Model Selection with an Uninformative Prior," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 863-876, December.
  14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  15. A. O’Hagan, 1997. "Properties of intrinsic and fractional Bayes factors," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 6(1), pages 101-118, June.
  16. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
  17. G. M. Martin & C. S. Forbes, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development and communication: some comments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 113-118.
  18. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  19. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  20. Strachan, Rodney W, 2003. "Valid Bayesian Estimation of the Cointegrating Error Correction Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 185-95, January.
  21. Kleibergen, F.R. & Paap, R., 1998. "Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9821, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  22. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  23. BAUWENS, Luc & RICHARD, Jean-François, . "A 1-1 poly-t random variable generator with application to Monte Carlo integration," CORE Discussion Papers RP 644, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  24. Phillips, Peter C B, 1994. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 73-93, January.
  25. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Spherical Matrix Distributions and Cauchy Quotients," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 823, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  26. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
  27. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
  28. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  29. Kamps, Annette, 2006. "The euro as invoicing currency in international trade," Working Paper Series 0665, European Central Bank.
  30. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Reference Analysis Of Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(02), pages 326-357, April.
  31. W. E. Griffiths, 1999. "Estimating consumer surplus comments on "using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference development and communication"," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 75-87.
  32. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "On the Shape of the Likelihood/Posterior in Cointegration Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 514-551, August.
  33. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
  34. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.