Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia
Against the background of the rapid inter- and intraregional integration of East Asia, we examine the extent and nature of synchronisation of business cycles in the region. We estimate various specifications of a dynamic common factor model for output growth of ten East Asian countries. A significant common factor is shared by all Asian countries considered, except China and Japan. The degree of synchronisation has fluctuated over time, with an upward trend particularly evident for the newly industrialised countries. Synchronisation appears to mainly reflect strong export synchronisation, rather than common consumption or investment dynamics. Cross-country spill-over effects explain only a small part of the comovement in the region. More importantly, a number of exogenous factors, such as the price of oil and the JPY-USD exchange rate, play an important role in synchronising activity. In addition, economic linkages with Europe and North America may also have contributed to the observed synchronisation. JEL Classification: E30, F00
|Date of creation:||Aug 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
NBER Working Papers
5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
- Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003.
"Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0574, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
- Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003.
"Do national business cycles have an international origin?,"
Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 223-247, 04.
- Joffrey Malek Mansour, 2003. "Do national business cycles have an international origin?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13490, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992.
"International Real Business Cycles,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Rüffer, Rasmus & Vitale, Giovanni, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Todd E. Clark & Eric van Wincoop, 1999.
"Borders and business cycles,"
91, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004.
"A dynamic factor analysis of the response of U. S. interest rates to news,"
2004-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Allan W. Gregory & Allen C. Head & Jacques Raynauld, 1994.
"Measuring World Business Cycles,"
902, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
- Selover, David D., 2004. "International co-movements and business cycle transmission between Korea and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 57-83, March.
- Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yu, Tzong-Shian, 2003. "Can East Asia rise again?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 715-729, January.
- Selover, David D., 1999. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 230-253, September.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000.
"On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003.
"Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, 08.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 022003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- By Norman Loayza & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2001. "Comovements and Sectoral Interdependence: Evidence for Latin America, East Asia, and Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 7.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2003. "Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 03/48, International Monetary Fund.
- George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "A Comparison of Estimation Methods for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Working Papers 489, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993.
"International R&D Spillovers,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
840, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
- Mark Crosby, 2003.
"Business Cycle Correlations in Asia-Pacific,"
042003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Alicia García-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008.
"Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?,"
Banco de Espa�a Working Papers
0810, Banco de Espa�a.
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do Trade and Financial Linkages Foster Business cycle Synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers 0801, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Jean Imbs, 2004.
"Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
- Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005.
"Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin J. Forbes, 2001. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: A Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," NBER Working Papers 8600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Takashi Isogai & Shunichi Shibanuma, 2000. "East Asia's Intra- and Inter-Regional Economic Relations; Data Analyses on Trade, Direct Investments and Currency Transactions," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series International Department,, Bank of Japan.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 933-954, 07.
- Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.