The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita GDP
Given that savings behaviour and worker productivity have strong life-cycle components and given that demographic profiles vary across countries, population age structure should be linked to differences in levels of economic development. In this paper we measure the economic importance of age structure variation for the global economy. We find that even after adjusting for country-specific effects, demographic maturation has been associated with nearly half of the evolution of global per-capita GDP since 1960. We also find that age structure differences can account for just over half of the variation in worldwide per capita GDP (i.e. the lack of sigma convergence) observed since 1960. Taken as a whole, these results complement recent theoretical and empirical work on the importance of population size and economic development and reinforce empirical work linking mature demographic age structures with faster cross-country economic growth rates. JEL Classification: J13, J22, J24, O11, O40
|Date of creation:||Aug 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Modigliani, Franco, 1986.
"Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
- Modigliani, Franco, 1985. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002.
"The world distribution of income (estimated from individual country distributions),"
Economics Working Papers
615, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2002.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "The World Distribution of Income (estimated from Individual Country Distributions)," NBER Working Papers 8933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schultz, T.P., 1998.
"Inequality in the Distribution of Personal Income in the World: How It Is Changing and Why,"
784, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Inequality in the distribution of personal income in the world: How it is changing and why," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 307-344.
- T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Inequality in the Distribution of Personal Income in the World: How it is Changing and Why," Working Papers 784, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998.
"The New Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- David N. Weil, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81.
- Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005.
"Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries,"
Handbook of Economic Growth,
in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542
- Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and the Size of Countries," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1995, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993.
"The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles I. Jones, 1997.
"On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 19-36, Summer.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1980.
"Unionism and the Dispersion of Wages,"
Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 34(1), pages 3-23, October.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999.
"Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia,"
CID Working Papers
15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995.
"The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, .
"Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
- Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1998. "New ways of looking at old issues: inequality and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 259-287.
- Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2003. "Demographic Maturity and Economic Performance: The Effect of Demographic Transitions on Per Capita GDP Growth," Working Papers 0318, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
- David Card & Thomas Lemieux & W. Craig Riddell, 2004. "Unions and Wage Inequality," Journal of Labor Research, Transaction Publishers, vol. 25(4), pages 519-562, October.
- Michael Sarel, 1995. "Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 398-410, June.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.