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Cross-border bank contagion in Europe

  • Gropp, Reint
  • Lo Duca, Marco
  • Vesala, Jukka

This paper analyses cross-border contagion in a sample of European banks from January 1994 to January 2003. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in a given country that experience a large shock on the same day (“coexceedances”) as a function of variables measuring common shocks and lagged coexceedances in other countries. Large shocks are measured by the bottom 95th percentile of the distribution of the daily percentage change in the distance to default of the bank. We find evidence in favour of significant cross-border contagion. We also find some evidence that since the introduction of the euro cross-border contagion may have increased. The results seem to be very robust to changes in the specification. JEL Classification: G21, F36, G15

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0662.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060662
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  9. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  10. Gropp, Reint & Kadareja, Arjan, 2007. "Stale information, shocks and volatility," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-012, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  11. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  12. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2000. "Causes of U.S. Bank Distress During the Depression," NBER Working Papers 7919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
  14. Freixas, X. & Holthausen, C., 2001. "Interbank Market Integration under Asymmetric Information," Papers 74, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
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  16. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167.
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  18. Grossman Richard S., 1993. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Bank Failures under the National Banking System," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 294-320, July.
  19. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April.
  20. Marcus, Alan J & Shaked, Israel, 1984. "The Valuation of FDIC Deposit Insurance Using Option-pricing Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(4), pages 446-60, November.
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  22. Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 261-283, December.
  23. Jin-Chuan Duan, 2000. "Correction: Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data of the Derivative Contract (Mathematical Finance 1994, 4/2, 155-167)," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 461-462.
  24. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
  25. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
  26. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
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  28. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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