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A speed limit monetary policy rule for the euro area

  • Stracca, Livio

This paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian model on euro area data and evaluates the performance of different simple policy rules and of the optimal unconstrained rule under commitment. The study reaches two main conclusions. First, inflation is found to be mainly forward-looking in the euro area, which implies the optimal policy reaction to cost push shocks is a muted one. Second, a "speed limit" rule of the type recently proposed by Walsh (2003) is able to closely approximate the performance of the optimal rule under commitment. The optimal speed limit rule is also characterised by super-inertia, making it a first difference rule similar to those recently proposed as a possible solution to measurement problems in the level of the natural interest rate and of potential output. JEL Classification: E52, E58

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0600.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060600
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  15. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
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  25. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
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