Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1
This paper investigates possible non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is firstly estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of non-linearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This non-linearity is explicitly modelled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions stemming from "buffer stock" and "target-threshold" models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the US. JEL Classification: E41, C22
|Date of creation:||Feb 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Edward, 2003.
"The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
- Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
- Laidler, David, 1984. "The 'Buffer Stock' Notion in Monetary Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 17-34, Supplemen.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
- Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
- Barnett, William A., 2003.
"Aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over the euro area, when countries are heterogeneous,"
Working Paper Series
0260, European Central Bank.
- William A. Barnett, 2003. "Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over the Euro Area, when Countries are Heterogeneous," Macroeconomics 0309018, EconWPA.
- Stracca, Livio, 2001.
"The functional form of the demand for euro area M1,"
Working Paper Series
0051, European Central Bank.
- Livio Stracca, 2003. "The Functional Form Of The Demand For Euro Area M1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 172-204, 03.
- Chadha, Jagjit S & Haldane, Andrew G & Janssen, Norbert G J, 1998.
"Shoe-Leather Costs Reconsidered,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 363-82, March.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 1-27, March.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
- Ordonez, Javier, 2003. "Stability and non-linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 139-146, January.
- Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
- Chen, Show-Lin & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2005. "Long-run money demand revisited: evidence from a non-linear approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 19-37, February.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "The Demand for Money: A Dynamic Rational Expectations Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 65-76, Supplemen.
- Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060592. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.