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A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models

  • Beyer, Andreas
  • Farmer, Roger E. A.

We develop a technique for analyzing the response dynamics of economic variables to structural shocks in linear rational expectations models. Our work differs fromstandard SVARs since we allow expectations of future variables to enter structural equations. We show how to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of fundamental and non-fundamental shocks and we construct point estimates and confidence bounds for impulse response functions. Our technique can handle both determinate and indeterminate equilibria. We provide an application to U.S. monetary policy under pre and post Volcker monetary policy rules. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51, E52, E58

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0586.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20060586
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  1. Keating, John W., 1990. "Identifying VAR models under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 453-476, June.
  2. repec:fth:starer:9613 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2004. "What We Don't Know About the Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Why We Don't Know It," CEPR Discussion Papers 4811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003. "On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy," CEPR Discussion Papers 4101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What happens after a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 768, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 523-550, July.
  9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  10. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E A, 2003. "Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Using Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4106, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June.
  12. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  13. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006.
  14. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
  15. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2004. "On the indeterminacy of new-Keynesian economics," Working Paper Series 0323, European Central Bank.
  16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  17. Lars Peter Hansen & Ellen R. McGrattan & Thomas J. Sargent, 1994. "Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Staff Report 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  20. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  21. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
  22. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
  23. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2005. "On the fit and forecasting performance of New-Keynesian models," Working Paper Series 0491, European Central Bank.
  24. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, September.
  25. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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