How successful are exchange rate communication and interventions? Evidence from time-series and event-study approaches
The paper analyses whether communication and actual interventions in FX markets are successful in moving exchange rates over the medium- to long-run. It compares empirical evidence based on time-series analysis with that obtained from an eventstudy approach. Both the time-series approach based on option contracts and the event-study methodology yield compelling evidence that communication and actual interventions tend to be successful in moving exchange rates in the desired direction contemporaneously as well as over the medium- to long term. This finding is consistent with recent work on microstructure models that emphasises the importance of dynamic effects of news and fundamentals on exchange rates. JEL Classification: C23, E41, E52
|Date of creation:||Sep 2005|
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- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
- Vitale, Paolo, 1999. "Sterilised central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 245-267, December.
- Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1820, October.
- Taylor, Mark P, 2003.
"Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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