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Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: an international comparison

  • Wilhelmsen, Bjørn-Roger
  • Zaghini, Andrea

The paper evaluates the ability of market participants to anticipate monetary policy decisions in the euro area and in 13 other countries. First, by looking at the magnitude and the volatility of the changes in the money market rates we show that the days of policy meetings are special days for financial markets. Second, we find that the predictability of the ECB’s monetary policy is fully comparable (and sometimes slightly better) to that of the FED and the Bank of England. Finally, an econometric analysis of the ability of market participants to incorporate in the current money rates the expected changes in the key policy rate shows that in the euro area policy decisions are anticipated well in advance. JEL Classification: E4, E5, G1

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0504.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050504
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  1. Vítor Gaspar & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Jorge Sicilia, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Papers 47, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  2. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Monetary policy transparency: transparent about what?," Working Papers 2002-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The Microstructure of the Euro Money Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," Other publications TiSEM b34dfb1f-520f-4787-a08f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  5. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 0192, European Central Bank.
  6. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
  7. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate," Staff Reports 110, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, 03.
  9. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates: A High-Frequency Identification," NBER Working Papers 8839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Selva Demiralp & Dennis Farley, 2003. "Declining required reserves, funds rate volatility, and open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-71, June.
  12. Courtenay, Roger & Clare, Andrew, 2001. "What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  13. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
  14. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
  15. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Sager, Michael J. & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "The impact of European Central Bank Governing Council announcements on the foreign exchange market: a microstructural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1043-1051.
  17. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 309-28, Winter.
  18. Jonathan Coppel & Ellis Connolly, 2003. "What Do Financial Market Data Tell Us about Monetary Policy Transparency?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  19. Demiralp, Selva & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 387-405, June.
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