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Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries

  • Afonso, António
  • Nickel, Christiane
  • Rother, Philipp

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use Logit models for the period 1991–2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful. JEL Classification: C25, E62, H62

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0473.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050473
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  1. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
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  3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of two Small Euopean Countries," Working Papers 89, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  4. de Arcangelis, Giuseppe & Lamartina, Serena, 2003. "Identifying fiscal shocks and policy regimes in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0281, European Central Bank.
  5. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  9. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. "Is private consumption growth higher (lower) during periods of fiscal contractions (expansions)?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-39, March.
  10. Perotti, Roberto, 1998. " The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 367-94, March.
  11. Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. " Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-24, October.
  12. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
  13. Alberto Alesina & Ignazio Angeloni & Federico Etro, 2003. "International Unions," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2001, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 1998. "Tales of fiscal adjustment," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 487-545, October.
  15. Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
  16. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Sanjeev Gupta & Luc Leruth & Luiz de Mello & Shamit Chakravarti, 2003. "Transition Economies: How Appropriate is the Size and Scope of Government?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 554-576, December.
  18. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
  19. Zaghini, A., 1999. "The Economic Policy of Fiscal Consolidations: The European Experience," Papers 355, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  20. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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