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Time-dependent versus state-dependent pricing: a panel data approach to the determinants of Belgian consumer price changes

Listed author(s):
  • Aucremanne, Luc
  • Dhyne, Emmanuel

Using Logistic Normal regressions, we model the price-setting behaviour for a large sample of Belgian consumer prices over the January 1989 - January 2001 period. Our results indicate that time-dependent features are very important, particularly an infinite mixture of Calvo pricing rules and truncation at specific horizons. Truncation is mainly a characteristic of pricing in the service sector where it mostly takes the form of annual Taylor contracts typically renewed at the end of December. Several other variables, including some that can be considered as state variables, are also found to be statistically significant. This is particularly so for accumulated sectoral inflation since the last price change. Once heterogeneity and the role of accumulated inflation are acknowledged, hazard functions become mildly upward-sloping, even in a low inflation regime. The contribution of the state-dependent variables to the pseudo-R² of our equations is, however, not particularly important. JEL Classification: C23, C25, D40, E31

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0462.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050462
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  1. L. Aucremanne & M. Druant, 2004. "Price-setting behaviour in Belgium : what can be learned from an ad hoc survey ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 17-47, December.
  2. Luc Aucremanne & Emmanuel Dhyne, 2004. "How frequently do prices change? Evidence based on the micro data underlying the Belgian CPI," Working Paper Research 44, National Bank of Belgium.
  3. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Benjamin Eden, 2005. "Rigid prices: evidence from U.S. scanner data," Working Paper Series WP-05-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does It Matter For Recent U.S. Inflation?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 277, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hernando, Ignacio, 2004. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: stylised facts using consumer price micro data," Working Paper Series 0416, European Central Bank.
  6. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Richard Mash, 2006. "Optimising Microfoundations for Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 457, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, December.
  10. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2002. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 9069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
  12. Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "Sticky prices, marginal cost, and the behavior of inflation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 29-48.
  13. Baudry, L. & Le Bihan, H. & Sevestre, P. & Tarrieu, S., 2004. "Price Rigidity. Evidence from the French CPI Macro-Data," Working papers 113, Banque de France.
  14. Bo E. Honoré & Luojia Hu, 2004. "Estimation of Discrete Time Duration Models with Grouped Data," CAM Working Papers 2004-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
  15. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  16. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690.
  17. Richard Mash, 2004. "Optimising microfoundations for observed inflation persistence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 60, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  18. Mónica Dias & Daniel Dias & Pedro Duarte Neves, 2004. "Stylised Features of Price Setting Behaviour in Portugal: 1992-2001," Working Papers w200405, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  19. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
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