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Measuring market and inflation risk premia in France and in Germany

  • Cappiello, Lorenzo
  • Guéné, Stéphane

This paper studies the role of inflation in the determination of financial asset prices. We estimate an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model à la Merton (1973), with inflation as an independent source of risk, for France and Germany. Our study also allows us to evaluate how the different nature of the French and German monetary policies before 1999 as well as the convergence process towards the single currency might have affected the role of inflation in the pricing of financial assets. We find that inflation is a significant explanatory factor for the pricing of stocks and government bonds in the two countries. Moreover, while there seems to be no clear structural break in the impact of inflation on asset prices after Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union, such an impact has been increasingly similar in the two countries after 1999. JEL Classification: C32, C61, E44, G12

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0436.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050436
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  1. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 36-58.
  2. R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-55, July.
  4. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "Portfolio Advice for a Multifactor World," CRSP working papers 491, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. Geert Bekaert & Guojun Wu, 1997. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1897, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  10. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  11. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
  12. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Determining the Number of Priced State Variables in the ICAPM," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 217-231, June.
  13. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, 04.
  14. De Santis, Giorgio & Gerard, Bruno, 1998. "How big is the premium for currency risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 375-412, September.
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