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How persistent is disaggregate inflation? An analysis across EU 15 countries and HICP sub-indices

  • Lünnemann, Patrick
  • Mathä, Thomas Y.

This paper analyses the degree of inflation persistence in the EU15, the euro area and each of its member states using disaggregate price indices from the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity across countries and indices. The overall results, based on both parametric and non-parametric persistence measures, suggest a very moderate degree of median and mean inflation persistence. For most price indices we are able to reject the unit root hypothesis, as well as the notion of disaggregate inflation exhibiting a high degree of persistence. Durable goods and services tend to be relatively less persistent than other indices. Aggregation effects, both across indices and countries, tend to be present. We find structural breaks both owing to the change in the monetary regime and to the modified treatment of sales in the official HICP series. The latter tends to reduce the measured degree of inflation persistence. JEL Classification: E31, C21, C22, C14

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0415.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040415
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  1. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Pierpaolo Benigno & J. David López-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the Euro Area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0215, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  4. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
  5. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2004. "Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Open Access publications 10197/251, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  6. Robert Barsky & Christopher House & Miles Kimball, 2003. "Do Flexible Durable Goods Prices Undermine Sticky Price Models?," Macroeconomics 0302003, EconWPA.
  7. Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-72, November.
  8. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  9. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2005. "Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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