Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?
This paper addresses some issues concerning the definition and measurement of inflation persistence in the context of the univariate approach. First, it is stressed that any estimate of persistence should be seen as conditional on the given assumption for the long run level of inflation and that such long run level should be allowed to vary through time. Second, a non-parametric measure of persistence is suggested which explores the relation between persistence and mean reversion. Third, inflation persistence in the U.S. and the Euro Area is re-evaluated allowing for a time varying mean and it is found that estimates of persistence crucially depend on the function used to proxy the mean of inflation. In particular, the widespread belief that inflation has been more persistent in the sixties and seventies than in the last twenty years is shown to obtain only for the U.S. and for the special case of a constant mean. JEL Classification: E31, C22, E52
|Date of creation:||Jun 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001.
"The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited,"
06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
- Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002.
"The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Christian J. Murray & David H. Papell, 2000. "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Paradigm," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0017, Econometric Society.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1999.
"Evaluating core inflation indicators,"
Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles,
Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jonathan L. Willis, 2003. "Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-27.
- Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Afonso Gonçalves da Silva, 2000.
"Why Should Central Banks Avoid the Use of the Underlying Inflation Indicator?,"
w200005, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Marques, Carlos Robalo & Neves, Pedro Duarte & da Silva, Afonso Goncalves, 2002. "Why should Central Banks avoid the use of the underlying inflation indicator?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 17-23, March.
- Burdekin, R.C.K. & Siklos, P.L., 1997.
"Exchange Rate Regimes and Shfts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?,"
97-2, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Burdekin, Richard C K & Siklos, Pierre L, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Shifts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 235-247, May.
- Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
- Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
- Michael Bleaney, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Persistence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-5.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.