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Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model

  • Batini, Nicoletta
  • Levine, Paul
  • Pearlman, Joseph G.

We examine the performance of forward-looking inflation-forecast-based rules in open economies. In a New Keynesian two-bloc model, a methodology first employed by Batini and Pearlman (2002) is used to obtain analytically the feedback parameters/horizon pairs associated with unique and stable equilibria. Three key findings emerge: first, indeterminacy occurs for any value of the feedback parameter on inflation if the forecast horizon lies too far into the future. Second, the problem of indeterminacy is intrinsically more serious in the open economy. Third, the problem is compounded further in the open economy when central banks respond to expected consumer, rather than pro- ducer price inflation. JEL Classification: E52, E37, E58

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0340.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040340
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  1. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  2. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Real indeterminacy in monetary models with nominal interest rate distortions: the problem with inflation targets," Working Paper 9818R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  6. Nicoletta Batini & Stephen P. Millard & Richard Harrison, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules For An Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 361, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  8. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1998. "Expectation Traps and Discretion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 462-492, August.
  9. Fiorella De Fiore & Zheng Liu, 2003. "Openness and Equilibrium Determinacy under Interest Rate Rules," Emory Economics 0310, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  10. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Departmental Working Papers 199914, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, EconWPA.
  12. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 103, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  13. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999. "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England.
  16. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2002. "Menu costs and the long-run output-inflation trade-off," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 95-100, June.
  17. Nicoletta Batini & Joseph Pearlman, 2002. "Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules," Discussion Papers 08, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  18. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
  19. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2002. "Implementing Monetary Cooperation Through Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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