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Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

  • Canova, Fabio
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Ortega, Eva

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect di?erences across business cycle phases but, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s. JEL Classification: C11, C33, E32

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0312.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040312
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