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A markup model of inflation for the euro area

  • Bowdler, Christopher
  • Jansen, Eilev S.

Equilibrium correction models of the price level are often used to model inflation. Such models assume that the long-run markup of prices over costs is fixed, but this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for shifts in the markup factor through estimating an equation that includes a timevarying intercept. The model fits the data better than a linear alternative, and suggests that a reduction in the price-cost markup contributed to disinflation in the Euro area during the 1980s. JEL Classification: C22,C32,E31

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0306.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040306
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  1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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  3. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Coenen, Günter & Vega, Juan Luis, 1999. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0006, European Central Bank.
  6. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper 2004/10, Norges Bank.
  7. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  8. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
  9. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-23, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  10. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  11. Fontagné, Lionel & Freudenberg, Michael & Péridy, Nicolas, 1998. "Intra-Industry Trade and the Single Market: Quality Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 1959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
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