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A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting

  • Morana, Claudio

In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an “ideal” core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures. JEL Classification: C22, E31, E52

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0305.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040305
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  1. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
  3. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  4. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties," Working Paper Series 0060, European Central Bank.
  5. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  6. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2003. "A common trends model of UK core inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 157-172, January.
  7. Arrazola, Maria & de Hevia, Jose, 2002. "An alternative measure of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-73, March.
  8. Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 109-138 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 1999. "Measuring Core Inflation in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 58(3-4), pages 301-328, December.
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