A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting
In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an “ideal” core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures. JEL Classification: C22, E31, E52
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bai, Jushan, 1997.
"Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 1999. "Measuring Core Inflation in Italy," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 58(3-4), pages 301-328, December.
- Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001.
"A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties,"
Working Paper Series
0060, European Central Bank.
- Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 81-108 Bank for International Settlements.
- Arrazola, Maria & de Hevia, Jose, 2002. "An alternative measure of core inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-73, March.
- Elena Angelini & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001.
"Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 109-138
Bank for International Settlements.
- Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0061, European Central Bank.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2003. "A common trends model of UK core inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 157-172, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
- Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996.
"Persistence in International Inflation Rates,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
333., Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20040305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.