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US, Japan and the euro area: comparing business-cycle features

  • McAdam, Peter

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common business cycle, asymmetries in the national cycles and, using a number of algorithms, date business-cycle turning points. Despite a high degree of trade and financial linkages, the cyclical features of US, Japan and the euro area appear quite distinct. Documenting and comparing such international business-cycle features can aid forecasting, model selection and policy analysis etc. JEL Classification: C32, F20

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0283.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20030283
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