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The fiscal costs of financial instability revisited

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  • Eschenbach, Felix
  • Schuknecht, Ludger

Abstract

This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal costs of financial instability (defined as major asset price changes and including, as extreme cases, financial crises). The study identifies three channels to fiscal accounts: 1) revenue effects on capital gains, asset turnover and consumption tax, 2) bailout costs as asset price declines undermine balance sheets of companies/banks, and 3) second-round effects from asset prices changes via the real economy and via debt service costs. A panel analysis and case studies show that episodes of financial instability increase the variability of fiscal balances. Moreover, fiscal costs are often very large and much larger than assumed in the literature so far with public debt rising by up to 50% of GDP during such episodes. These fiscal effects can also serve as a, so far under-emphasised, rationale for the deficit and debt targets in the EU?s Maastricht Treaty and Stability and Growth Pact. JEL Classification: H3, H6, E6

Suggested Citation

  • Eschenbach, Felix & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2002. "The fiscal costs of financial instability revisited," Working Paper Series 0191, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020191
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    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp191.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises; Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization?," IMF Working Papers 95/61, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Crises now and then: what lessons from the last era of financial globalization?," Chapters,in: Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, pages 1-34.
    4. Eugene White & Frederic Mishkin, 2002. "U.S.Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 200208, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    5. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 276-299.
    6. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2000. "Controlling the fiscal costs of banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2441, The World Bank.
    7. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten M Sloek, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 137-164.
    2. van Riet, Ad, 2010. "Euro area fiscal policies and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 109, European Central Bank.
    3. Panayiotis F. Diamandis & Anastassios A. Drakos & Georgios P. Kouretas & Leonidas P. Zarangas, 2012. "Asset allocation in the Athens stock exchange: a variance sensitivity analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 167-181, April.
    4. Renata Karkowska, 2012. "The economic costs of economic risk in the financial market (Koszty ekonomiczne ryzyka systemowego na rynku finansowym)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 10(39), pages 33-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset prices; deficits; financial crisis; financial stability; Fiscal policies;

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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