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Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades

  • Manganelli, Simone

This paper develops a new econometric framework to model duration, volume and volatility simultaneously. We obtain an econometric reduced form that incorporates causal and feedback effects among these variables. We construct impulse-response functions that show how the system reacts to a perturbation of its long-run equilibrium. The methodology is applied to two groups of stocks from NYSE, classified according to their trade intensity. We document how the two groups of stocks are characterised by different dynamics: 1) volume is more persistent for frequently traded stocks than for the infrequently traded ones; 2) the well-known positive relationship between volume and price variability holds only for the frequently traded stocks at the ultra high frequency level; 3) the trade arrival process can be considered exogenous only for the not frequently traded stocks; 4) the more frequently traded the stock, the faster the market returns to its full information equilibrium after a perturbation JEL Classification: C32, G14

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File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp125.pdf
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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0125.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20020125
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  1. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
  2. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.
  3. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
  4. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
  5. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-68, September.
  6. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  7. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot, 2003. "Asymmetric ACD models: Introducing price information in ACD models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 709-731, November.
  8. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
  9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  10. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
  11. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  12. Zhang, Michael Yuanjie & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2001. "A nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration model with applications to financial transaction data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 179-207, August.
  13. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
  14. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  15. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  16. Robert F. Engle, 1996. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 5816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Other publications TiSEM 0642fb61-c7f4-4281-b484-4, School of Economics and Management.
  18. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March.
  19. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
  20. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
  21. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Discussion Paper 1992-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  22. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  23. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-91, September.
  24. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March.
  25. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  26. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-51.
  27. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  28. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. " Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
  29. Holden, Craig W & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. " Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 247-70, March.
  30. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March.
  31. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  32. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153273 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Liesenfeld, Roman, 2001. "A generalized bivariate mixture model for stock price volatility and trading volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 141-178, August.
  34. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
  35. Hartmann, Philipp, 1999. "Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from daily dollar-yen spot data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 801-824, May.
  36. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
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