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Some stylised facts on the euro area business cycle

  • Agresti, Anna Maria
  • Mojon, Benoît

This paper presents stylised facts about the business cycle of the euro area. The results suggest that the stylised facts for the euro area economy and the US are very similar. The magnitude of the fluctuations in consumption, investment, prices, inflation, interest rate, monetary aggregates relative to the fluctuations of GDP are very similar in the two monetary unions. There is also high synchronicity of the national cycles and the euro area aggregate cycle. This synchronicity is observed for the main GDP components as well as for interest rates and it is particularly high for the largest countries of the euro area and for countries of the core ERM. These results are not sensitive to a different aggregation method chosen to build euro area aggregates. However, we do find differences between the euro area and the member countries when looking at what variables are predicting inflation or GDP JEL Classification: E42, E50

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0095.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010095
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  1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
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  21. Calza, Alessandro & Gartner, Christine & Sousa, João, 2001. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0055, European Central Bank.
  22. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
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  25. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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