Monetary policy and fears of financial instability
Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynesian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the stability of inflation to the smoothness of the interest rate path. A policy focusing only on a fixed-horizon inflation forecast neglects the potential effects of this belief on the variance of inflation. The nature of the conflict case is interpreted as evidence for the occasional relevance as well as the general tenuousness of the conflict case. The implementation of our example has led us, furthermore, to illustrate the lack of general applicability of the Bellman principle in dynamic programming for forward-looking models. Our result holds with respect to a more general (Nash-type) concept of optimality JEL Classification: C61, C62, E52, E58
|Date of creation:||Nov 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004.
"Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?,"
Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics
04/13, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
- Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, . "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers 01/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Honkapohja, S. & Mitra, K., 2001. "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 501, Department of Economics.
- George G. Kaufman, 1998. "Central banks, asset bubbles, and financial stability," Working Paper Series WP-98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Smets, Frank, 1997.
"Financial Asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial asset prices and monetary policy: theory and evidence," BIS Working Papers 47, Bank for International Settlements.
- Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52.
- Gorton, Gary, 1988.
"Banking Panics and Business Cycles,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 4692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988.
"Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking,"
88-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988. "Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue May, pages 3-22.
- Goodfriend, M. & King, R.G., 1988. "Financial Deregulation, Monetary Policy, And Central Banking," RCER Working Papers 121, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, .
"The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
11-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, 1991. "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 109-174 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher Kent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "Asset-price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9709, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Christopher Kent & Guy Debelle, 1999. "Trends in the Australian Banking System: Implications for Financial System Stability and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.