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Monetary policy and fears of financial instability

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  • Brousseau, Vincent
  • Detken, Carsten

Abstract

Exploiting a specific sunspot equilibrium in a standard forward-looking New Keynesian model, we present an example of a possible conflict between short-term price stability and financial stability. We find a conflict because the sunspot process consists of a self-fulfilling belief linking the stability of inflation to the smoothness of the interest rate path. A policy focusing only on a fixed-horizon inflation forecast neglects the potential effects of this belief on the variance of inflation. The nature of the conflict case is interpreted as evidence for the occasional relevance as well as the general tenuousness of the conflict case. The implementation of our example has led us, furthermore, to illustrate the lack of general applicability of the Bellman principle in dynamic programming for forward-looking models. Our result holds with respect to a more general (Nash-type) concept of optimality JEL Classification: C61, C62, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Brousseau, Vincent & Detken, Carsten, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 0089, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010089
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
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    5. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 4692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Christopher Kent & Guy Debelle, 1999. "Trends in the Australian Banking System: Implications for Financial System Stability and Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Frank Smets, 1997. "Financial-asset Prices and Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988. "Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue May, pages 3-22.
    9. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    10. George G. Kaufman, 1998. "Central banks, asset bubbles, and financial stability," Working Paper Series WP-98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Timothy Cogley, 1999. "Should the Fed take deliberate steps to deflate asset price bubbles?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 42-52.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. DETKEN Carsten & SMETS Frank, "undated". "Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy," EcoMod2003 330700042, EcoMod.
    2. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    3. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Bořek Vašíček, 2011. "Time Varying Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress," Chapters,in: Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 10 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Sofía Bauducco & Aleš Bulir & Martin Èihák, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 545-565, December.
    5. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    6. Claudiu T. Albulescu & Cornel Oros, 2014. "The policy-mix in the Euro Area: The Role of Financial Stability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 705-717.
    7. Martin Cihak & Ales Bulir & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 08/18, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Helmut Wagner, 2005. "Globalization and financial instability: Challenges for exchange rate and monetary policy," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(7), pages 616-638, July.
    9. Claudiu Tiberiu ALBULESCU, 2011. "Macro-Financial Risks and Central Banks: What Changes Has the Crisis Triggered?," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(3(15)), pages 135-142.
    10. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: A Reduced-Form Model for the EURO Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 62-81, March.
    11. Mario Sarcinelli, 2003. "Crisi economiche e mercati finanziari: di aiuto un nuovo ordine finanziario?," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(224), pages 387-422.
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2003. "Monetary stability, financial stability and the business cycle: five views," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 18.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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