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Does liquidity matter? Properties of a synthetic divisia monetary aggregate in the euro area

  • Stracca, Livio

This paper sets out to build a synthetic quarterly Divisia monetary aggregate for the euro area using area wide data over the sample period from 1980 to 2000. Then, the analysis proceeds in two separate steps. First, the demand for this Divisia monetary aggregate is evaluated using econometric techniques. By means of a cointegrated VECM model, a theoretically plausible and stable demand function may be estimated. Second, the information content of the Divisia monetary aggregate as regards future output and inflation in the euro area is analysed. The outcome of this analysis suggests that the Divisia monetary aggregate has some information content from a forward-looking perspective, of comparable quality as simple sum M1 and M3. More in general, the paper lends further support to the view that money and 'liquidity' should be assigned an important role in shaping monetary policy in the euro area. JEL Classification: E41, E52

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0079.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010079
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  1. Livio Stracca, 2003. "The Functional Form Of The Demand For Euro Area M1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 172-204, 03.
  2. Edward Nelson, 2000. "Direct effects of base money on aggregate demand: theory and evidence," Bank of England working papers 122, Bank of England.
  3. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
  4. Rotemberg, J.J. & Driscoll, J.C. & Poterba, J.M., 1991. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Working papers 585, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  7. Mahmood Pradhan & Huw Pill, 1994. "Monetary Aggregation; A Reconciliation of Theory and Central Bank Practice," IMF Working Papers 94/118, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1113-36, November.
  9. Michael T. Belongia, 1990. "Monetary policy on the 75th anniversary of the Federal Reserve System: summary of conference proceedings," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 59-65.
  10. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Alessandro Calza & Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand; Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 01/179, International Monetary Fund.
  11. S. Hendry & G-J. Zhang, 1999. "Liquidity Effects and Market Frictions," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 29, Netherlands Central Bank.
  12. Serletis, Apostolos & Robb, A Leslie, 1986. "Divisia Aggregation and Substitutability among Monetary Assets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 430-46, November.
  13. Jag Chadha & Andrew Haldane & Norbert Janssen, 1998. "Shoe-leather costs reconsidered," Bank of England working papers 86, Bank of England.
  14. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1997. "Microfoundations and the Demand for Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1186-1201, July.
  15. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  16. Paul Fisher & Suzanne Hudson & Mahmood Pradhan, 1993. "Divisia Indices for Money: An Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Bank of England working papers 9, Bank of England.
  17. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
  18. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
  19. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
  20. Drake, L. & Mullineux, A., 1995. "One Divisa Money for Europe?," Discussion Papers 95-04, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  21. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-83, October.
  22. J. M. Binner & A. Fielding & A. W. Mullineux, 1999. "Divisia money in a composite leading indicator of inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1021-1031.
  23. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  24. William A. Barnett, 1996. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Macroeconomics 9611001, EconWPA.
  25. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Travis Nesmith, 1996. "Monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers," Working Papers 1996-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  26. Katrin Wesche, 1997. "The demand for divisia money in a core monetary union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-60.
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