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Central bank forecasts of liquidity factors: Quality, publication and the control of the overnight rate

  • Bindseil, Ulrich
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    A simple model of the interaction between central bank liquidity management and the inter-bank overnight rate is suggested which allows analysing the publication of forecasts of liquidity factors by the European Central Bank adopted in June 2000. The paper argues that the main practical advantage of the publication of these forecasts is that it makes the signal extraction problem with regard to the central bank's intentions trivial and hence allows establishing a superior behavioural equilibrium between the central bank and the money market participants. In this equilibrium, the central bank can achieve a better steering of overnight rates than under private autonomous factor forecasts, depending of course also on the quality of liquidity forecasts. It is furthermore shown that the publication of an average of autonomous factors, such as adopted by the ECB, is, at least within the model presented, superior to the separate publication of autonomous factors for each single day JEL Classification: D84, E52

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    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0070.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010070
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    1. Quiro, G.P. & Mendizabal, H.R., 2001. "The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: Has Something Changed with the EMU," Papers 67, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    2. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate," Staff Reports 110, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 0044, European Central Bank.
    4. Nautz, Dieter, 1997. "How Auctions Reveal Information: A Case Study on German REPO Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 17-25, February.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
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