On the effectiveness of sterilized foreign exchange intervention
This paper addresses the question of whether sterilized central bank intervention systematically affects exchange rates. Furthermore, the paper analyzes whether a central bank can conduct its intervention operations in a specific manner, in order to increase the likelihood of achieving its objectives. The first question is addressed by applying the event study methodology of the finance literature to daily data on Bundesbank and Fed post-Plaza intervention. Using the non-parametric sign test and the matched sample test, evidence of effectiveness in terms of a systematic association between exchange rate levels and intervention is found. The second question is addressed by estimating binary choice models of the conditional probabilities of observing a successful intervention operation over observations when at least one of the two central banks were intervening. The results suggest that central banks can in fact improve the likelihood of success primarily through co-ordination and, also, if intervention occurs infrequently. JEL Classification: F31, F33, F42, G15
|Date of creation:||Feb 2000|
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- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996.
"Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?,"
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- Kaminsky, G.L. & Lewis, K.K., 1992. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-3, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Karen K. Lewis, 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Working Papers 96-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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- Catherine Bonser-Neal & Glenn Tanner, 1995. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Research Working Paper 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
- Corrado, Charles J., 1989. "A nonparametric test for abnormal security-price performance in event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
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