A global hazard index for the world foreign exchange markets
This paper proposes a forward-looking indicator of risk in the foreign exchange markets calculated from the implied volatilities of currency options according to the Garman-Kohlhagen model. We discuss the properties of such indicator and stress that it is related to a notion of risk that does not coincide with that of Gaussian risk underlying most mainstream models. We postulate that it is associated with a broader definition of risk, which we call hazard in order to avoid confusion. The properties of the Global Hazard Indicator (GHI) are assessed against the background of the market turbulence in 1998. This period has been characterized by abnormal fluctuations in the exchange rate markets spurred by a sequence of shocks in some emerging economies and in South East Asia, which have raised fear of contagion in developed countries. JEL Classification: F01, F31
|Date of creation:||May 1999|
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- Gordon M. Bodnar & Leonardo Bartolini, 1995. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? and What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?," IMF Working Papers 95/85, International Monetary Fund.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
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