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Shocking the Eurozone

  • P.J.G. Vlaar

In this paper, the monetary transmission mechanism within the European Monetary Union is investigated. The impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions of a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) are compared with those of a New Keynesian theoretical model. The identifying restrictions of the SVECM are directly derived from the theoretical model. Two permanent shocks are identified, one having only nominal, and one having only real effects. The three transitory shocks comprise a short term interest rate shock, an aggregate demand shock and a money demand shock. The main conclusions are that permanently reducing the inflation objective depresses output in the first year, but has no real effects in the long run. Regarding output variability, the results indicate that aggregate demand shocks are most important during the first year, after which aggregate supply shocks dominate.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/wo0696_tcm46-145993.pdf
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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 696.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:696
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Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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