IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Output gap and inflation in the EU

  • W. Bolt
  • P.J.A. van Els

Output gaps for 11 EU-countries, the US and Japan are constructed based on measures of potential output derived from a CES production technology. This technology accommodates differences in substitution elasticities between countries. Indeed, the empirical evidence shows that real wage elasticities of labour demand differ widely across countries. The output gaps constructed turn out to explain movements in inflation in a statistically significant way. Moreover, an aggregate European output gap significantly preceeds inflation in the EU-countries individually as well as aggregate European inflation. These findings imply that an aggregate European output gap is a sensible indicator for inflation to be considered in the policy preparation process at the ECB.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 550.

in new window

Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:550
Contact details of provider: Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  3. Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
  5. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-77.
  6. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  8. Fase, M. M. G. & Kramer, P. & Boeschoten, W. C., 1992. "MORKMON II : The Nederlandsche Bank's quarterly model of the Netherlands economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 146-204, April.
  9. P Clark & D Laxton, 1997. "Phillips Curves," CEP Discussion Papers dp0344, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  10. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  12. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland.
  13. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:109:y:1994:i:1:p:241-65 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  15. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  16. Raymond Torres & John P. Martin, 1989. "Potential Output in the Seven Major OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 66, OECD Publishing.
  17. Douglas Laxton & Peter B. Clark & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetry in the U.S. Output-Inflation Nexus: Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/76, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.