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Revision of the DNB-business cycle indicator

Listed author(s):
  • L. de Haan
  • F.W. Vijselaar

Since 1989, DNB publishes every month a column on the Netherlands' economy in the Dutch economist weekly, ESB. This column discusses the latest trends depicted by the DNB business cycle indicator. The indicator has not been changed since its construction and has performed well over the years. Nevertheless, its composition needs some revision, of which this report gives an account. The main conclusions are that the indicator needs: 1. a different method of trend adjustment, which makes a clearer distinction between major cycles and subcycles, and which is less sensitive to new data. 2. a replacement of two of the five underlying series by series with better forecasting properties.

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) with number 545.

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Date of creation: 1998
Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:545
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