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The European economy in 1998 and 1999: a forecast with EUROMON

Author

Listed:
  • G.J. de Bondt
  • A.C.J. Stokman

Abstract

This paper presents forecasts for eight European Union member states for the years 1998 and 1999 based on the macroeconomic structural model EUROMON of the Nederlandsche Bank. In the baseline projection the economic effects of a fall in Asian economic growth resulting from the financial-economic crisis in this region have been taken into account. Besides this projection two alternative projections are presented (stronger Asian price-competitiveness and lower interest rates). The current EUROMON-forecast is also compared with the forecast of a half year ago and those of the IMF, the European Commission and the OESO. Finally, the forecasts are reviewed in the light of the EMU convergence criteria. According to the projections of the Bank growth of real gdp in the EU will slightly strengthen from 2,5% in 1997 to 2,6% this year and 2,7% next year. Against this background unemployment rates within the European Union will go down. Inflation differentials within the group of countries considered in EUROMON will narrow further. On average, inflation in the EU is expected to stabilize at a level of around 2% this and next year. Given the fiscal policy measures announced, the downward tendency in public deficits within the EU will continue in 1998 and 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • G.J. de Bondt & A.C.J. Stokman, 1998. "The European economy in 1998 and 1999: a forecast with EUROMON," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 534, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:wormem:534
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