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Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks

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  • J.A. Bikker
  • H. Hu

Abstract

The proposed risk sensitive minimum requirements of the new Basel capital accord have raised concerns about possible (acceleration of) procyclical behaviour of banking, which might threaten macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses the interaction between business cycles and bank behaviour over the past two decades for 26 industrial countries. As expected, profits appear to move up and down with the business cycle, allowing for accumulation of capital in boom periods. Provisioning for credit losses rise when the cycle falls, but less so when net income of banks is relatively high, which reduces procyclicality. Lending fluctuates with the business cycle too, but appears to be driven by demand rather than by supply factors such as (shortage of) capital, which contradicts the assumptions underlying capital crunch theory. All in all, over the last decades, distortion caused by procyclical behaviour of banks has been limited, banking crises excepted.

Suggested Citation

  • J.A. Bikker & H. Hu, 2003. "Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 86, Netherlands Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:86
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    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/binaries/sr086_tcm46-146863.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Rainer, 2007. "Profitability of Western European banking systems: panel evidence on structural and cyclical determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Mario Quagliariello, "undated". "Banks' Performance over the Business Cycle: A Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Discussion Papers 04/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    4. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "La sensibilité de l'activité bancaire aux chocs macroéconomiques : une analyse en panel sur des données de banques luxembourgeoises," BCL working papers 21, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
    6. Chakraborty, Suparna & Allen, Linda, 2007. "Revisiting the Level Playing Field: International Lending Responses to Divergences in Japanese Bank Capital Regulations from the Basel Accord," MPRA Paper 1805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks'procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    8. Jacob A. Bikker & Paul A. J. Metzemakers, 2007. "Is Bank Capital Procyclical? A Cross-Country Analysis," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 40(2), pages 225-264.
    9. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Banks� Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Albertazzi, Ugo & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2009. "Bank profitability and the business cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 393-409, December.
    11. Mark Illing & Graydon Paulin, 2004. "The New Basel Capital Accord and the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital," Staff Working Papers 04-30, Bank of Canada.
    12. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1359, November.
    13. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    14. Ricardo Bebczuk & Tamara Burdisso & Jorge Carrera & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2011. "A New Look into Credit Procyclicality: International Panel Evidence," BCRA Working Paper Series 201155, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    15. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," NBP Working Papers 53, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Marcucci, Juri & Quagliariello, Mario, 2008. "Is bank portfolio riskiness procyclical: Evidence from Italy using a vector autoregression," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 46-63, February.
    17. Awojobi, Omotola & Amel, Roya & Norouzi, Safoura, 2011. "Analysing Risk Management in Banks: Evidence of Bank Efficiency and Macroeconomic Impact," MPRA Paper 33590, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jul 2011.
    18. Märten Kress, 2004. "Lending cycles in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.
    19. David Liebeg & Markus Schwaiger, 2006. "Determinants of the Interest Rate Margins of Austrian Banks," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 12, pages 104-116.
    20. Fadzlan Sufian, 2010. "Financial depression and the profitability of the banking sector of the Republic of Korea: panel evidence on bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 17(2), pages 65-92, December.
    21. Forte, Antonio & Cepparulo, Alessandra, 2012. "Microeconomic determinants of losses in financial institutions during the crisis," MPRA Paper 38539, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    profits; credit loss provisioning; lending; business cycle; credit crunch; bank lending;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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