On the Strenght of the US Dollar: Can it be Explained by Output Growth?
One popular view on the current strength of the US dollar is that the higher growth in the US compared to Europe has stimulated foreigners to buy American assets, thereby driving up the exchange rate. In this paper a modified portfolio balance model is presented, in which it is shown that the impact of output growth on the exchange rate depends crucially on the origin of this growth. An improvement of the output gap is shown to actually depress the exchange rate whereas an increase in potential output growth leads to an appreciation, especially if this improvement is likely to be persistent. In an empirical example, it is shown that the equilibrium Dmark dollar rate is indeed positively affected by a positive trend growth differential between the US and Germany, whereas it is negatively affected by a positive output gap differential.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1999. "Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of European Monetary Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 295-372.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1985.
"Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement,"
NBER Working Papers
1692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-103, January.
- Frank Smets, 2002.
"Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?,"
Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
- Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
- Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992.
"International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Milesi-Ferretti, 2001.
"Long-Term Capital Movements,"
NBER Working Papers
8366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," IMF Working Papers 01/107, International Monetary Fund.
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," Trinity Economics Papers 200112, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," CEPR Discussion Papers 2873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," CEG Working Papers 20018, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1991. " Current Account and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 511-30.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo Group Munich.
- Dooley, Michael & Isard, Peter, 1982. "A portfolio-balance rational-expectations model of the dollar-mark exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 257-276, May.
- Harald Uhlig, 1995.
"A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Harald Uhlig, 1998. "A Toolkit for Analysing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily," QM&RBC Codes 123, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Stein, Jerome L. & Allen, Polly Reynolds, 1998. "Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293064, March.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.