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Low inflation at no cost? A numerical simulations exercise

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  • M. Demertzis

Abstract

The independent nature of the Central Bank is often associated with achieving low and stable inflation. Further to that the merits of independence are stretched to achieving low(er) output variability when compared to a government run monetary policy. In this paper we use the Alesina and Alesina and Gatti model to examine how often an Independent Central Bank can achieve an improvement on both counts. To do that we run numerical simulations where we change the ex ante probability of elections (and hence the degree of electoral uncertainty) with a view to determining how the private sector's perceptions affect the level of output variability. Our conclusions agree with the Alesina and Gatti assertion that there will exist occasions that both political parties will consent to the running of monetary policy by an independent institution but that is the least often occurred outcome. On theoretical grounds therefore, the trade-off between inflation and output variability (à la Rogoff) is still a valid one.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Demertzis, 2001. "Low inflation at no cost? A numerical simulations exercise," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 72, Netherlands Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:72
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    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/binaries/sr072_tcm46-146849.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Viegi, Nicola, 2004. "An independent central bank faced with elected governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 907-922, November.
    3. Cukierman, A., 1996. "The Economics of Central Banking," Discussion Paper 1996-31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Crosby, Mark, 1998. "Central bank independence and output variability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 67-75, July.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Gatti, Roberta, 1995. "Independent Central Banks: Low Inflation at No Cost?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 196-200, May.
    6. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-162, May.
    8. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Demertzis & A. Hughes Hallett & N. Viegi, 2002. "An Independent Central Bank faced with Elected Government: A Political Economy Conflict," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 686, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Economic Performance," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 3(1), pages 123-156, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank Independence; Output stability; Political uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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