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Evaluating Core Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • C.R. Marques
  • P.D. Neves
  • L.M. Sarmento

Abstract

This paper proposes testable conditions that core inflation measures should satisfy. Trend inflation indicators calculated by Banco de Portugal are tested against this background. The major conclusion is that the so-called "underlying inflation", the "10% trimmed mean", and the "25% trimmed mean" do not meet the proposed conditions. However, they are satisfied by the "37-month centred moving average", the "first principal component" and the "standard deviation weighted CPI" indicators. Yet, only the last two indicators can be used as useful core inflation measures, as the first one is not computable in real time.

Suggested Citation

  • C.R. Marques & P.D. Neves & L.M. Sarmento, 2001. "Evaluating Core Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 66, Netherlands Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:66
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    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/binaries/sr066_tcm46-146843.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    2. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
    7. Thérèse Laflèche, 1997. "Statistical measures of the trend rate of inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 29-47.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Naresh Kumar Sharma & Motilal Bicchal & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Measuring core inflation in India: An asymmetric trimmed mean approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1014252-101, December.
    2. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 2006/097, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alan Mankikar & Jo Paisley, 2004. "Core inflation: a critical guide," Bank of England working papers 242, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    core inflation measures; trimmed mean;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics

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