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Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe

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  • J.M. Berk

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach that does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, which makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for non-normal peakedness and asymmetry, we convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into quantitative time series of inflation expectations. After checking the rationality of the constructed expectations measures, we investigate the effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates and inflation on inflation expectations across European countries. We inter alia seek to explore whether the reaction of consumers in countries with more credible central banks differs from the reaction of consumers in less credible countries.

Suggested Citation

  • J.M. Berk, 2000. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 55, Netherlands Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:55
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    Cited by:

    1. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "An Alternative to the Carlson-Parkin Method for the Quantification of Qualitative Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," ifo Working Paper Series 9, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2008. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 325-346, July.
    3. Taniya Ghosh & Sohini Sahu & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2017. "Households' Inflation Expectations in India: Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Global Financial Uncertainty Spill-over," Working Papers id:11890, eSocialSciences.
    4. Malka de Castro Campos & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Individual inflation expectations in a declining-inflation environment: Evidence from survey data," DNB Working Papers 508, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank.
    6. Ueda, Kozo, 2010. "Determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-518, December.
    7. Elena Andreou & Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis, 2017. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy surprises," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2017, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    8. Kozo Ueda, 2009. "Determinants of Households' Inflation Expectations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon M. Potter & Michael F. Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Andreou, Elena & Eminidou, Snezana & Zachariadis, Marios, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 11306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    14. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:1:p:42-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Angelo M. Fasolo & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: a New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] b34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Survey data; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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