Value-at-Risk Analysis of Stock Returns Historical Simulation,Variance Techniques or Tail Index Estimation?
In this paper various Value-at-Risk techniques are applied to the Dutch stock market index AEX and to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The main conclusion are: (1) Changing volatility over time is the most important characteristic of stock returns when modelling value-at-risk; (2) For low confidence levels, the fat tails of the distribution can best be mod- eled by means of the t-distribution; (3) Tail index estimators are not successful, due to the fact that they can not cope with the volatility clustering phenomenon.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam|
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Haan, Laurens & Resnick, Sidney I. & Rootzén, Holger & de Vries, Casper G., 1989. "Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to arch processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-224, August.
- R.W.J. van den Goorbergh, 1999. "Value-at-Risk and least squares tail index estimation," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 578, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-60, July.
- Jón Daníelsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998.
"Beyond the Sample: Extreme Quantile and Probability Estimation,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
98-016/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Jon Danielsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "Beyond the Sample: Extreme Quantile and Probability Estimation," FMG Discussion Papers dp298, Financial Markets Group.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Vlaar, Peter J. G., 2000. "Value at risk models for Dutch bond portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1131-1154, July.
- M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, June.
- Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.