IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Taylor Rule for the Euro Area Based on Quasi-Real Time Data

Author Info

  • Yvonne Adema

Abstract

One of the main criticisms on the original Taylor rule is the so-called real time critique; because data on especially the output gap are only available after some quarters the original Taylor rule is not operational. Moreover, Taylor rules estimated with ex post revised data could result in misleading descriptions of monetary policy. The aim of this paper is to develop a modified Taylor rule based on (quasi-)real time data for the euro area. We find that modified Taylor rules based on (quasi-)real time data and an interest rate smoothing term give a good description of monetary policy in the euro area during the 1994-2000 period. These Taylor rules could serve as indicators of the monetary stance in the euro area. But the forecasts of the interest rate obtained from the Taylor rules are too imprecise to get an exact interest rate forecast. Furthermore, actual monetary policy was more expansionary than what is expected of the estimated Taylor rules. We also find that using final data to estimate a Taylor rule, while in reality only (quasi-) real time data are available, does not lead to more misleading policy descriptions compared to using a Taylor rule estimated with (quasi-)real time data.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/sr114_tcm46-146891.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank in its series DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) with number 114.

as
in new window

Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:114
Contact details of provider: Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Taylor rule; Quas-Real Time Data; Euro Area;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999. "The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  8. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & de Haan, J., 2000. "European Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Other publications TiSEM a056022b-c6b1-4c89-bcd5-3, School of Economics and Management.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
  11. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
  12. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 1999. "The Taylor Rule: A Useful Monetary Policy Benchmark for the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 85-116, April.
  13. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
  15. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the Business Cycle: a Modified Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9912, Banco de Espa�a.
  16. Frank Smets, 1998. "Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?," BIS Working Papers 60, Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2000. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Working Paper Series 0015, European Central Bank.
  18. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  20. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  21. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  23. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  24. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  26. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, January.
  27. McCallum, Bennett T., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice: two critical points : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 215-220, December.
  28. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Surico, Paolo, 2003. "How does the ECB target inflation?," Working Paper Series 0229, European Central Bank.
  30. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  31. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank, 2003. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1611-1638, July.
  32. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  33. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  34. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-82796 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. William Poole, 1999. "Monetary policy rules?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-12.
  36. W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 2000. "Output Gap and Inflation in the EU," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 44, Netherlands Central Bank.
  37. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  38. Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
  39. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as in new window


Cited by:

  1. Karsten Ruth, 2007. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 541-569, November.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2009. "Does the ECB Rely on a Taylor Rule?: Comparing Ex-post with Real Time Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 917, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. C.J.M. Kool, 2005. "What Drives ECB Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 05-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
  4. Par Osterholm, 2005. "The Taylor rule and real-time data - a critical appraisal," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 679-685.
  5. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Output Growth; Empirical Evidence for the European Union," IMF Working Papers 05/89, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "The Role of the IFO Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1204, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Ruth, Karsten, 2004. "Interest rate reaction functions for the euro area Evidence from panel data analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,33, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:staffs:114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.