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Inside the Impossible Triangle:Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Credible Target Zone

  • W. Jos Jansen

This paper examines the trade-off between exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy for a target zone. Using the guilder-mark target zone in the pre-EMU period as a case study, we empirically estimate how much policy discretion the Dutch central bank still enjoyed and how much had been ceded to the German central bank. The sum of these two measures is an estimate of the policy autonomy under a free float. We find that the narrow guilder-mark target zone still permitted a modest degree of policy independence. This result suggests that intermediate exchange rate regimes may offer an attractive trade-off compared to the corner solutions (free float and monetary union), which is consistent with the 'fear of floating' phenomenon.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/ms2003-13_tcm46-147343.pdf
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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department in its series MEB Series (discontinued) with number 2003-13.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2003-13
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld., 1998. "EMU: Ready, or Not?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-101, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
  5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 23-42, Fall.
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the flow of funds," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime," NBER Working Papers 8828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Fank Smets, 1997. "Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks in France, Germany and Italy: The Role of The Exchange Rate," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 597-616, September.
  10. Garretsen, Harry & Swank, Job, 1998. "The Transmission of Interest Rate Changes and the Role of Bank Balance Sheets: A VAR-Analysis for the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 325-339, April.
  11. Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," CEPR Discussion Papers 1685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  13. Butter, Frank A.G. den & Mosch, Robert H.J., 2001. "the Dutch miracle: institutions, networks and trust," Serie Research Memoranda 0018, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  14. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 0154, European Central Bank.
  15. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1998. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union: What Are the Differences?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 374-396, June.
  16. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  17. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. repec:dgr:kubcen:199670 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "The role of banks in monetary policy: a survey with implications for the European Monetary Union," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 2-18.
  20. Butter, Frank A.G. den & Mosch, Robert H.J., 2001. "the Dutch miracle: institutions, networks and trust," Serie Research Memoranda 0018, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  21. Kumah, F.Y., 1996. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles," Discussion Paper 1996-70, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  22. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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