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The Timing of EU Expansion and the Real Exchange Rate

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  • Paul Cavelaars

Abstract

This paper employs a dynamic Ricardian model to analyse the impact of the timing of EU expansion on the real exchange rate between the accession countries' currencies and the euro. I find that the real exchange rate response to EU accession is smaller in the case of a postponed accession, as postponement gives the regions more time to converge. However, early EU accession would contribute to reducing the real exchange rate response to asymmetric productivity shocks, as increased bilateral trade reduces the size of the non-tradable goods sector, making the real exchange rate less sensitive to productivity shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Cavelaars, 2002. "The Timing of EU Expansion and the Real Exchange Rate," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-3, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2002-3
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    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/binaries/ms2002-03_tcm46-147315.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 00/30, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ricahrd E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, April.
    3. Fabrizio Coricelli & Boštjan Jazbec, 2004. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in the Accession to the EMU," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 4-22, March.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies; Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 00/3, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," NBER Working Papers 7664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Stanley Fischer, 1998. "How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács, 1999. "Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    10. Gerhard Fink, 2001. "Trade Protection in Five EU Member Candidate Countries by Exchange Rate Adjustment, Customs Tariffs, and Nontariff Measures," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 95-116, January.
    11. Daviddi, Renzo & Ilzkovitz, Fabienne, 1997. "The Eastern enlargement of the European Union: Major challenges for macro-economic policies and institutions of Central and East European countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 671-680, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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