IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Investor reactions to news: an analysis of the euro-dollar exchange rate

  • Henriette Prast
  • Marc de Vor

This paper investigates whether the fall in the euro-dollar exchange rate in the course of 2000 can be partly attributed to asymmetric reactions by investors to economic and political news. We have studied the daily euro-dollar exchange rate changes recorded from 1 April 2000 to the first co-ordinated exchange rate intervention on 22 September 2000, regressing these changes on economic and political news items about the US and the euro area. The paper suggests that investors' response to news about the US differs from that to news about the euro area. Specifically, the exchange rate did not respond to economic news about the euro area, whereas it did to US economic news. There are indications that the opposite holds true in respect of political news. Moreover, the paper shows a difference in the magnitude in the reaction to 'good' and 'bad' news items, which may suggest some additional news filtering by investors (cognitive dissonance). These asymmetric reaction pattern may explain at least partly why, contrary to what exchange rate theory would predict, the recovery of the economy in the euro area in the course of 2000 was not followed by an appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar. Importantly, given the relevance of political euro area news to investors, politicians and central bankers face the challenge to convince market participants of the viability of EMU.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department in its series MEB Series (discontinued) with number 2001-6.

in new window

Date of creation: Jul 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2001-6
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam

Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Seminar Papers 621, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Patrick Lünnemann, 2001. "Stock market valuation of old and new economy firms," BCL working papers 2, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:mebser:2001-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.