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The impact of sovereign and credit risk on interest rate convergence in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Ivo Arnold
  • Saskia van Ewijk

Abstract

This paper employs a time-varying parameter state space model to explore the impact of the crisis on bank retail rates in the euro area. We show that ?-convergence in interest rates has been adversely affected by the crisis and quantify the role of sovereign and credit risk as two alternative explanations for the increase in financial fragmentation. A key finding is that the heterogeneity in sovereign risk across member states accounts for a sizable part of the increase in the cross-sectional dispersion of various lending and deposit rates. In contrast, the impact of the increased heterogeneity in credit risk on bank retail rates is negligible. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce sovereign tensions - as exemplified by the ECB's OMT program - may help to reduce financial fragmentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Arnold & Saskia van Ewijk, 2014. "The impact of sovereign and credit risk on interest rate convergence in the euro area," DNB Working Papers 425, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Fabien Labondance & Vincent Touze & Paul Hubert, 2014. "Comment lutter contre la fragmentation du système bancaire de la zone euro: Etude spéciale," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7986np0ssj9, Sciences Po.
    2. Holton, Sarah & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza, 2015. "Jagged Cliffs and Stumbling Blocks: Interest Rate Pass-through Fragmentation during the Euro Area Crisis," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Tomas Adam & Robert Ambrisko & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Vilma Dingova & Dana Hajkova & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlat, 2014. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2014," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as14 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Jakub Mateju, June.
    4. B. De Backer, 2015. "Decomposition of the dynamics of sovereign yield spreads in the euro area," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, pages 54-75.
    5. Holton, Sarah & Rodriguez d'Acri, Costanza, 2015. "Jagged cliffs and stumbling blocks: interest rate pass-through fragmentation during the Euro area crisis," Working Paper Series 1850, European Central Bank.
    6. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Moccero, Diego & Krylova, Elizaveta & Marchini, Claudia, 2014. "The retail bank interest rate pass-through: The case of the euro area during the financial and sovereign debt crisis," Occasional Paper Series 155, European Central Bank.
    7. Xavier Timbeau, 2015. "A diverging Europe on the edge: The independent Annual Growth Survey 2015," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4s2r6d8kua9, Sciences Po.
    8. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova, June.
    9. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Vincent Touzé, 2014. "Comment lutter contre la fragmentation du système bancaire de la zone euro ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, pages 171-219.
    10. Luca Onorante & Matija Lozej & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2017. "Countercyclical capital regulation in a small open economy DSGE model," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova, June.
    12. Anamaria Illes & Marco Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2015. "Why Did Bank Lending Rates Diverge from Policy Rates After the Financial Crisis?," Discussion Papers 2015/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    13. Anamaria Illes & Marco Lombardi & Paul Mizen, 2015. "Why Did Bank Lending Rates Diverge from Policy Rates After the Financial Crisis?," Discussion Papers 2015/05, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank retail rates; Sigma-convergence; sovereign risk; credit risk; state space model;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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