IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Taking Trends Seriously in DSGE Models: An Application to the Dutch Economy

Listed author(s):
  • Pierre Lafourcade
  • Joris de Wind
Registered author(s):

    We construct a new-Keynesian DSGE model tailored to the Netherlands and interpret it as a multivariate unobserved components model. We identify three major stochastic trends in the data—trends in general-purpose technology, investment-specific technology, and labor supply—and model them formally in our theoretical set-up. Our trend-cycle decomposition captures the data's co-integrating properties without which long-run analysis—whether scenario analysis or forecasting—would likely be misspecified. In particular, this approach appears to produce better-behaved posteriors for parameters along decision margins where traditional modeling imposes highly persistent but temporary shocks. The existence of permanent and temporary disturbances along the same margin broadens the scope for counterfactuals. Specifically, differences in short-run responses to the two types of shocks reflect smoothing motives and discounted valuation effects reminiscent of the Permanent Income Hypothesis.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20Paper%20345_tcm46-275646.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 345.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Jul 2012
    Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:345
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam

    Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window

    1. Cantore, Cristiano & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2010. "Shocking stuff: technology, hours, and factor substitution," Working Paper Series 1278, European Central Bank.
    2. Whelan, Karl, 2003. " A Two-Sector Approach to Modeling U.S. NIPA Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 627-656, August.
    3. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-255, May.
    4. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2009. "MEDEA: A DSGE Model for the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 2009-17, FEDEA.
    5. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Yongsung Chang & Taeyoung Doh & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Non-stationary hours in a DSGE model," Working Papers 06-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Evaluating An Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 203, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Nikolay Iskrev, 2009. "Local Identification in DSGE Models," Working Papers w200907, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Ferroni, Filippo, 2009. "Trend agnostic one step estimation of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 14550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.