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Bank Profitability during Recessions

  • Wilko Bolt
  • Leo de Haan
  • Marco Hoeberichts
  • Maarten van Oordt
  • Job Swank

This paper estimates the relation between bank profitability and economic downturns using a theoretical model that takes into account the bank's lending history as well as amortization and losses on outstanding loans. We focus on total bank profits and its components: net interest income, other income, and net provisioning plus other costs. Using both aggregate and individual bank panel datasets, our results confirm that pro-cyclicality of bank profits is stronger for deep recessions than during mild ones. Loan-losses are found to be the main driver of this nonlinearity. We find evidence that each percent contraction of real GDP during severe recessions leads to a 0.24 percent decrease in return on bank assets.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20paper%20251_tcm46-236504.pdf
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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 251.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:251
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  18. Swank, Job, 1999. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Short-Term Interest Rate Policies and the Role of Reserve Requirements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 389-411, May.
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  21. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Matthaios, 2005. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," MPRA Paper 32026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  23. Cavallo, Michele & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Do Banks provision for bad loans in good times? empirical evidence and policy implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2619, The World Bank.
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  25. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Aggelos T. Vouldis & Vasilios L. Metaxas, 2010. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Working Papers 118, Bank of Greece.
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