The 'Wisdom of the Crowds' and Public Policy
Surowiecki (2004) argues that collective predictions are better than individual predictions and calls that the Wisdom of the Crowds. We use an analytical information model to demonstrate and explain this. Then we see how these two predictions are affected by better public information and show that while individual predictions always improve, collective ones do not. A social planner that relies on collective predictions to form policy may erroneously refrain from providing better information. We use two examples to show where this might be applicable.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam|
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008.
"Inflation Targets as Focal Points,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2004. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," DNB Working Papers 017, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2005. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 52, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2005. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," Working Papers 02, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Maria Demertzis & Marco Hoeberichts, 2007. "The Costs of Increasing Transparency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 263-280, July.
- Maria Demertzis & Marco Hoeberichts, 2006. "The Costs of Increasing Transparency," DNB Working Papers 080, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.