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Confidence in Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Yakov Ben-Haim
  • Maria Demertzis

Abstract

In situations of relative calm and certainty, policy makers have confidence in the mechanisms at work and feel capable of attaining precise and ambitious results. As the environment becomes less and less certain, policy makers are confronted with the fact that there is a trade-off between the quality of a certain outcome and the confidence (robustness) with which it can be attained. Added to that, in the presence of Knightian uncertainty, confidence itself can no longer be represented in probabilistic terms (because probabilities are unknown). We adopt the technique of Info-Gap Robust Satisficing to first define confidence under Knightian uncertainty, and second quantify the trade-off between quality and robustness explicitly.We apply this to a standard monetary policy example and provide Central Banks with a framework to rank policies in a way that will allow them to pick the one that either maximizes confidence given an acceptable level of performance, or alternatively, optimizes performance for a given level of confidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Yakov Ben-Haim & Maria Demertzis, 2008. "Confidence in Monetary Policy," DNB Working Papers 192, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:192
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    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20paper%20192_tcm46-208075.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-721, November.
    2. Demertzis Maria & Viegi Nicola, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: A Framework for Communication," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.
    3. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    4. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 211-211.
    5. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Pitfalls of a Minimax Approach to Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 51-54, May.
    6. William Poole, 2004. "Best guesses and surprises," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-8.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben-Haim, Yakov & Demertzis, Maria, 2016. "Decision making in times of Knightian uncertainty: An info-gap perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-30.
    2. Yakov Ben-Haim & Maria Demertzis & Jan Willem Van den End, 2017. "Fundamental uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy: an info-gap approach," DNB Working Papers 544, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Yakov Ben-Haim & Maria Demertzis, 2015. "Decision making in times of uncertainty: An info-gap perspective," DNB Working Papers 487, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knightian Uncertainty; Satisficing; Bounded Rationality; Minmax;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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